Friday, 7 June 2013

Stock Markets and Money Creation

On the recent QE debate, the main issue discussed by the participants is whether or not the asset swap of Treasury securities for "cash" is inflationary or deflationary. What we should also focus when defining what QE does, is finding out what it affects. According to traditional (neoclassical) economic theory, for inflation to rise (or to occur) the money money supply needs to be increased. This means that money needs to be created, via the usual monetary policy transmission mechanism, the banking sector, or by employing the printing machine. As I have argued in a previous post, although it is doubtful whether QE can actually do that, it is very successful when it comes to increasing stock prices. This, as I will later argue, if it is persistent, will increase inflation expectations and thus boost the economy.

Thus, the question is: can the stock market increase money supply? The short answer is yes, if it has a persistent increasing trend over some time, as I will shortly argue. 

Assume we have a closed economy (for simplicity) where we have a fixed amount of money supply (M), a stock market exists with just 1 company listed (again, for simplicity) and some amount of agents (i.e. consumers/investors). Then, we can safely assume that the profits of the listed company will represent the state of the economy (i.e. if the economy grows, profits grow. If it contracts, profits contract) and thus its stock market valuation will represent both the current state of the economy as well as the agents' expectations about its future state. 

If the agents decide to put some of their money in the stock market, they will do it with the purpose of having some gain in the future (otherwise it will be just foolish). If the economy is growing, it is likely that more and more people will want to invest some of their money in the company, hoping that its rising profits will result in rising prices (or higher dividends), thus rendering them some profits. If we assume that the company price was 1 at time 0 (when we start observing this economy), with a capitalization value of €1bn for 100m profits, an increase in the price to 2 would mean that the market capitalization of the company would be increased to €2bn. Yet, as the reader may observe, this extra 1bn came out of thin air! Thus, at the end of the day, money supply has been theoretically increased by 1bn without any money printing and without any lending by the banks.

Nevertheless, this amount cannot be used to purchase goods or services (unless it is employed as collateral for loans) since it represents what traders call "paper profits". This are profits which have not yet been realized (i.e. you have not sold the shares you own yet), yet the potential for realizing them exists. If everyone tries to sell their shares when the price reaches €2, it is more than likely that the price will fall, maybe to a level even lower than the starting one. If this happens, then although many will have profited from their speculation, many will suffer losses, making it unsure whether the actual money stock has been increased or decreased. Thus, what we need is a sustainable higher level of stock prices, one which would make the realization of paper profits and the increasing of the money stock possible (for those wondering what happens to the money stock with constant buying and selling until it reaches the €2 level, it increases. Yet for simplicity we do not use this here)

Increasing the money stock would mean that prices (i.e. inflation) would also increase. With inflation rising, investment would soon follow and the economy would continue its course. Yet, for this we need the stock market price to follow an upwards trend not just for a few periods but for longer. The rationale behind this is both because of the need of investors to be reassured that the trend is here to stay as well as for them to have time enough to both invest (i.e. reduce consumption) and sell out (i.e. increase consumption and money). As a consequence, even if in the short run, we may experience deflation or disinflation, it is more than possible to experience inflationary pressures in the medium- and long-run. (for the chain of events after QE see chain of causality here)

Japan is a good example in this case. Rising Nikkei prices lead to increased inflation as the real estate bubble grew larger and larger and by the time inflation reached its peak in early 1991, the Nikkei had already began its downwards trend which basically lasted until early 2013, when Shinzo Abe's policies intended to boost the economy. Any notion of GDP reduction causing the stock market fall can easily be discarded as the graph indicates that the fall in GDP occurred six year later, in 1996, although a flattening of GDP can be seen in the 1990-1991 period.
Nikkei values up to 31/12/1990. Source Yahoo! Finance

Nikkei values from 1991 to 2013
What should be noted is the decrease in money supply, an outcome of the bubble, over the 1990-1991 correction period, which, combined with the stock market crash, resulted in a reduction of the GDP growth rate from 2.5% to approximately -0.3% in just one year. Nevertheless, as stated above, GDP continued to rise over time, with an upward trend visible (albeit much smaller than before).
Most importantly, what holds of inflation, can also hold for deflation in our case. Thus, if a protracted period of falling stock market prices occurred in the economy, it would, in its turn, decrease the money stock, which would cause either disinflation or deflation. What should be noted, of course, is that although the stock market has an effect on the money stock, this is an outcome of the policy implemented and not of the market itself. It may be true that we cannot have a protracted period of deflation unless we self-induce it, yet, it is more than possible for deflationary pressures to exert their powers in the market over the short-run. Thus, through the use of QE, increased stock market prices would result in higher inflation expectations in the future but only if they can last long enough to make this point credible.

73 comments:

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    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete
  21. HOW I WON $273 million WITH DR, MIRACLE LOTTERY MAGIC SPELL

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  29. Everything we do [We do in perfection]
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    Status: ISKANDAR LESTARI LOAN COMPANY
    © Copyright The Iskandar Lenders Group 2019

    ReplyDelete
  31. Hello all
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    ReplyDelete
  32. We are direct providers of Fresh Cut BG, SBLC and MTN which are specifically for lease/sales, our bank instrument can be engage in PPP Trading, Discounting, signature project(s) such as Aviation, Agriculture, Petroleum, Telecommunication, construction of Dams, Bridges, Real Estate and all kind of projects. We do not have any broker chain in our offer or get involved in chauffeur driven offers. We deliver with time and precision as sethforth in the agreement. Our terms and Conditions are reasonable, below is our instrument description. The procedure is very simple; the instrument will be reserved on euro clear to be verified by your bank, after verification an arrangement will be made for necessary bank documents and stock testing expenses, the cost of the Bank Guarantee/Standby Letter of Credit will be paid after the delivery of the MT760, Description OF INSTRUMENTS: 1. Instrument: Bank Guarantee (BG/SBLC) 2. Total Face Value: Eur/USD 5M MIN and Eur/USD 10B MAX (Ten Billion EURO/USD). 3. Issuing Bank: HSBC Bank London, Barclay's bank London,Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank Frankfurt. 4. Age: One Year, One Month 5. Purchasing Price: 32% of face value plus 2% commission fees Leasing Price: 4% of Face Value plus 1% commission fees. 6. Delivery: Bank to Bank swift. 7. Payment: MT-103 or MT760 8. Hard Copy: Bonded Courier within 7 banking days. We are ready to close leasing/Buying with any interested client in few banking days, if interested do not hesitate to contact me Name : PAUL DAVID Email: pauldavid20001@gmail.com Skype: P_david123@outlook.com whatsapp:+447921551354

    ReplyDelete
  33. We are direct providers of Fresh Cut BG, SBLC and MTN which are specifically for lease/sales, our bank instrument can be engage in PPP Trading, Discounting, signature project(s) such as Aviation, Agriculture, Petroleum, Telecommunication, construction of Dams, Bridges, Real Estate and all kind of projects. We do not have any broker chain in our offer or get involved in chauffeur driven offers. We deliver with time and precision as sethforth in the agreement. Our terms and Conditions are reasonable, below is our instrument description. The procedure is very simple; the instrument will be reserved on euro clear to be verified by your bank, after verification an arrangement will be made for necessary bank documents and stock testing expenses, the cost of the Bank Guarantee/Standby Letter of Credit will be paid after the delivery of the MT760, Description OF INSTRUMENTS: 1. Instrument: Bank Guarantee (BG/SBLC) 2. Total Face Value: Eur/USD 5M MIN and Eur/USD 10B MAX (Ten Billion EURO/USD). 3. Issuing Bank: HSBC Bank London, Barclay's bank London,Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank Frankfurt. 4. Age: One Year, One Month 5. Purchasing Price: 32% of face value plus 2% commission fees Leasing Price: 4% of Face Value plus 1% commission fees. 6. Delivery: Bank to Bank swift. 7. Payment: MT-103 or MT760 8. Hard Copy: Bonded Courier within 7 banking days. We are ready to close leasing/Buying with any interested client in few banking days, if interested do not hesitate to contact me Name : PAUL DAVID Email: pauldavid20001@gmail.com Skype: P_david123@outlook.com whatsapp:+447921551354

    ReplyDelete
  34. We offer certified and verifiable bank instruments via Swift Transmission from a genuine provider capable of taking up time bound transactions.

    BANK INSTRUMENT PARTICULARS

    Instruments :Fully Cash Backed, Fresh Cut Bank Guarantee(Standard ICC format)
    Age :One (1) years and One (1) day
    Rate :Leasing: 3+2, Purchase: 32+2
    Currency :USD/Euro
    Bank :Top A Rated banks
    Amount :As Advised by Beneficiary
    Intermediary Fees : Two Percent (2%) of Face Value payable by Beneficiary
    Tranches : As per agreed tranches schedule
    Delivery : Swift MT799/MT760
    Payment : Swift MT103 (Wire Transfer)

    Contact Name: James mills
    Email:kondorfinanceplc@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  35. Do You Need A Loan To Consolidate Your Debt At 1.0%? SuiteCapitals@gmail.com ( SuiteCapitals@post.com ) Or A Personal Loans * Business Loans etc. Interested Parties Should Contact Us For More Information Through Via E-mail: SuiteCapitals@gmail.com ( SuiteCapitals@post.com )

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  36. I have my ATM card already programmed to withdraw the maximum of $ 4,000 a day for a maximum of 20 days. I'm so happy with this because I got mine last week and I've used it to get $ 44,000. Mr Clifford is giving the card just to help the poor and needy even though it is illegal but it is something nice and it is not like another scam pretending to have the ATM cards blank. And no one gets caught when using the card. Get yours today by sending a mail to cliffordhackerspays@gmail.com.... THIS IS 100% REAL. I AM A BENEFICIARY OF THIS. HACKERS EMAIL: cliffordhackerspays@gmail.com

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  37. Do you need to hire a licenced hacker who can even stand in court If your spouse cheats contact he can help you. very talented and immaculate I call him the genius, we've had a few runnings together and I am always more than satisfied with his services. Some of the tricks he did for me are cloning my girlfriend's phone and topping my credit score to an awesome number. If you need such services drop him a mail at ghosthackercybermart@gmail.com
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    ReplyDelete
  38. richardson Smith19 August 2019 at 06:27

    We are major/Direct providers of Fresh Cut BG, SBLC, POF, MTN, Bonds and CDs and this financial instruments are specifically for lease and sale.We are one of the leading Financial instrument providers with offices all over Europe.

    we always deliver on time and precision as Set forth in the agreement. You are at liberty to engage our leased facilities into trade programs, project financing, Credit line enhancement, Corporate Loans (Business Start-up Loans or Business Expansion Loans), Equipment Procurement Loans (Industrial Equipment, Air crafts, Ships, etc.) as well as other financial instruments issued from AAA Rated bank such as HSBC Bank Hong Kong, HSBC Bank London, Deutsche Bank AG Frankfurt, Barclays Bank , Standard Chartered Bank and others on lease at the lowest available rates depending on the face value of the instrument needed, Our Terms and Conditions are reasonable.

    DESCRIPTION OF INSTRUMENTS:
    1. Instrument: Bank Guarantee (BG)/SBLC (Appendix A)
    2. Total Face Value: 10M MIN to 50B MAX USD or Euro



    3. Issuing Bank: HSBC, Deutsche Bank Frankfurt, UBS or any Top 25 .
    4. Age: One Year, One Day
    5. Leasing Price: 4+ 1%
    6. Sale Price: 32+2%
    7. Delivery by SWIFT .
    8. Payment: MT103-23
    9. Hard Copy: Bonded Courier within 7 banking days.

    If you have need for Corporate loans, International project funding, etc. or if you have a client that requires funding for his project or business, We are also affiliated with lenders who specialize on funding against financial instruments, such as BG, SBLC, POF or MTN, we fund 100% of the face value of the financial instrument.
    Inquiries from agents/ brokers/ intermediaries are also welcomed; do get back to us if you are interested in any of our services and for quality service

    Name: Richardson smith

    Email: richardsonsmith365@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete


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  41. Halo, saya Nyonya Christy Morris, pemberi pinjaman pribadi memberikan kesempatan pinjaman seumur hidup. Apakah Anda memerlukan pinjaman untuk melunasi utang Anda dengan segera atau Anda membutuhkan pinjaman untuk meningkatkan komersial Anda? Apakah Anda telah ditolak oleh bank dan lembaga keuangan lainnya? Kami memberikan pinjaman kepada individu yang membutuhkan bantuan finansial, yang memiliki utang macet atau butuh uang untuk membayar tagihan, kami memberikan pinjaman dengan bunga rendah 2%. Saya ingin menggunakan media ini untuk memberi tahu Anda bahwa kami memberikan bantuan yang dapat dipercaya dan diuntungkan dan akan bersedia menawarkan Anda pinjaman. Jadi hubungi kami hari ini melalui e-mail di: (christymorrisloanfirm@gmail.com)

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  42. Hello all
    am looking few years that some guys comes into the market
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  51. NeoGrowthsCredit@gmail.com29 August 2019 at 19:46

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  57. We are direct providers of Fresh Cut BG, SBLC and MTN which are specifically for lease/sales, our bank instrument can be engage in PPP Trading, Discounting, signature project(s) such as Aviation, Agriculture, Petroleum, Telecommunication, construction of Dams, Bridges, Real Estate and all kind of projects. We do not have any broker chain in our offer or get involved in chauffeur driven offers. We deliver with time and precision as sethforth in the agreement. Our terms and Conditions are reasonable, below is our instrument description. The procedure is very simple; the instrument will be reserved on euro clear to be verified by your bank, after verification an arrangement will be made for necessary bank documents and stock testing expenses, the cost of the Bank Guarantee/Standby Letter of Credit will be paid after the delivery of the MT760, Description OF INSTRUMENTS: 1. Instrument: Bank Guarantee (BG/SBLC) 2. Total Face Value: Eur/USD 5M MIN and Eur/USD 10B MAX (Ten Billion EURO/USD). 3. Issuing Bank: HSBC Bank London, Barclay's bank London,Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank Frankfurt. 4. Age: One Year, One Month 5. Purchasing Price: 32% of face value plus 2% commission fees Leasing Price: 4% of Face Value plus 1% commission fees. 6. Delivery: Bank to Bank swift. 7. Payment: MT-103 or MT760 8. Hard Copy: Bonded Courier within 7 banking days. We are ready to close leasing/Buying with any interested client in few banking days, if interested do not hesitate to contact me Name : PAUL DAVID Email: pauldavid20001@gmail.com Skype: P_david123@outlook.com whatsapp:+447921551354

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    $5000---------------$255
    $10,000-------------$500
    $13,000-------------$680
    $15,000-------------$760
    $17,000-------------$880
    $20,000-------------$970
    $25,000-------------$1000
    $30,000-------------$1100
    $35,000-------------$1200
    $40,000-------------$1300
    $45,000-------------$1350
    $50,000-------------$1500

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  63. We are direct providers of Fresh Cut BG, SBLC and MTN which are specifically for lease/sales, our bank instrument can be engage in PPP Trading, Discounting, signature project(s) such as Aviation, Agriculture, Petroleum, Telecommunication, construction of Dams, Bridges, Real Estate and all kind of projects. We do not have any broker chain in our offer or get involved in chauffeur driven offers. We deliver with time and precision as sethforth in the agreement. Our terms and Conditions are reasonable, below is our instrument description. The procedure is very simple; the instrument will be reserved on euro clear to be verified by your bank, after verification an arrangement will be made for necessary bank documents and stock testing expenses, the cost of the Bank Guarantee/Standby Letter of Credit will be paid after the delivery of the MT760, Description OF INSTRUMENTS: 1. Instrument: Bank Guarantee (BG/SBLC) 2. Total Face Value: Eur/USD 5M MIN and Eur/USD 10B MAX (Ten Billion EURO/USD). 3. Issuing Bank: HSBC Bank London, Barclay's bank London,Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank Frankfurt. 4. Age: One Year, One Month 5. Purchasing Price: 32% of face value plus 2% commission fees Leasing Price: 4% of Face Value plus 1% commission fees. 6. Delivery: Bank to Bank swift. 7. Payment: MT-103 or MT760 8. Hard Copy: Bonded Courier within 7 banking days. We are ready to close leasing/Buying with any interested client in few banking days, if interested do not hesitate to contact me Name : PAUL DAVID Email: pauldavid20001@gmail.com Skype: P_david123@outlook.com whatsapp:+447921551354

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  66. We are direct providers of Fresh Cut BG, SBLC and MTN which are specifically for lease, our bank instrument can be engage in PPP Trading, Discounting, signature project (s) such as Aviation, Agriculture, Petroleum, Telecommunication, construction of Dams, Bridges, Real Estate and all kind of projects. We do not have any broker chain in our offer or get involved in chauffer driven offers.

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  67. We are direct providers of Fresh Cut BG, SBLC and MTN which are specifically for lease/sales, our bank instrument can be engage in PPP Trading, Discounting, signature project(s) such as Aviation, Agriculture, Petroleum, Telecommunication, construction of Dams, Bridges, Real Estate and all kind of projects. We do not have any broker chain in our offer or get involved in chauffeur driven offers. We deliver with time and precision as sethforth in the agreement. Our terms and Conditions are reasonable, below is our instrument description. The procedure is very simple; the instrument will be reserved on euro clear to be verified by your bank, after verification an arrangement will be made for necessary bank documents and stock testing expenses, the cost of the Bank Guarantee/Standby Letter of Credit will be paid after the delivery of the MT760, Description OF INSTRUMENTS: 1. Instrument: Bank Guarantee (BG/SBLC) 2. Total Face Value: Eur/USD 5M MIN and Eur/USD 10B MAX (Ten Billion EURO/USD). 3. Issuing Bank: HSBC Bank London, Barclay's bank London,Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank Frankfurt. 4. Age: One Year, One Month 5. Purchasing Price: 32% of face value plus 2% commission fees Leasing Price: 4% of Face Value plus 1% commission fees. 6. Delivery: Bank to Bank swift. 7. Payment: MT-103 or MT760 8. Hard Copy: Bonded Courier within 7 banking days. We are ready to close leasing/Buying with any interested client in few banking days, if interested do not hesitate to contact me Name : PAUL DAVID Email: pauldavid20001@gmail.com Skype: P_david123@outlook.com whatsapp:+447921551354

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