tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1814467024485189561.post8866766727812926974..comments2024-03-29T00:15:07.421-07:00Comments on Euronomist<br>: Troika Wrong? Estimates of the Cyprus DebtEuronomisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09172739717345263308noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1814467024485189561.post-13335385395451980202013-03-28T01:51:42.575-07:002013-03-28T01:51:42.575-07:00Hello Andrew.
From my point of view, if the bank ...Hello Andrew.<br /><br />From my point of view, if the bank recapitalization ceiling is 6bn (which again is rather odd given that the Bank of Cyprus needs are about 1.5-2bn but let's take it as our baseline scenario), the whole amount should not be in excess of 10-11bn. This amount includes bank recapitalization, government debt and another 1-2bn for future deficits. Yet, this is with the assumption that the Russian loan will not be restructured. If it is then 8-9bn would be a better price tag (again, including bank recap, debt and a margin of 1-2bn for extra deficits).<br /><br />In contrast, the package agreed on the first Eurogroup was of a 19.2bn bailout while the second was of an approximate 16bn bailout, so there is at least a 5bn difference (or about 30% of their calculations). <br /><br />The whole depositor mess could have been avoided if they had been more careful with their calculationsEuronomisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09172739717345263308noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1814467024485189561.post-11630703431956582512013-03-27T09:03:40.403-07:002013-03-27T09:03:40.403-07:00Hi Euronomist,
I would appreciate (not being an ec...Hi Euronomist,<br />I would appreciate (not being an economist) if you could clarify what your estimate of an appropriate bailout amount is, based on the above numbers (and assuming the 6bn ceiling on bank recap needs). <br />ThanksAndrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12650249291697352765noreply@blogger.com